AI Is Pushing Memory Prices Up, and Phones Are Feeling It

DRAM revenue nearly quintupled in a year while shipments barely grew. Prices drove the jump, and chipmakers such as Qualcomm are passing costs on to phone makers.

Published
· 2 min read
Category
Tech
Topics
drammemorysemiconductorssmartphonesai-demand
한국어 요약
시장조사업체 Counterpoint에 따르면 2026년 3분기 전 세계 DRAM 매출은 전년 대비 369% 늘어 약 2,000억 달러에 가까웠고, 같은 분기 출하량(비트 기준)은 약 4% 증가에 그쳐 물량이 아니라 가격이 이 증가를 이끌었습니다. 평균 판매가는 기가비트당 1.9달러로, AI 가속기와 데이터센터 수요에 더해 에이전트형 AI가 일반 DDR(약 500%)과 LPDDR(약 400%) 매출을 크게 키웠습니다. 점유율은 삼성전자 38%, SK하이닉스 29%, 마이크론 21%, CXMT 9%입니다. Qualcomm은 7월 29일 실적 발표에서 9월 1일 이후 출하분부터 대부분의 칩 가격을 올린다고 밝혔고(인상 폭은 비공개, 언론은 두 자릿수로 보도), 기기 가격으로 얼마나 전가될지는 아직 불확실합니다. 이 수치는 시장조사업체의 추정이며 기업 감사 실적이 아니라는 점도 감안해야 합니다.
Abstract grid of small squares that brighten from lower left to upper right, like memory cells
AI-generated illustration (Claude (hand-coded SVG))

Global DRAM revenue rose 369% from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2026, to nearly $200 billion, according to a Nov. 5 report from Counterpoint Research. DRAM is the main working memory in phones, PCs, and servers. Counterpoint is a market research firm, so these are its estimates, not audited company results.

Prices, not volume

The surprise is how little the quantity changed. Counterpoint says bit shipments grew only about 4% in the quarter. Revenue jumped because the average price reached $1.9 per gigabit. Analyst Jeongku Choi called it “a pricing super-cycle, not yet a volume cycle.”

Why prices are rising

Counterpoint points to demand from AI accelerators and data centers. It also says agentic AI, meaning AI that carries out multi-step tasks, is driving demand for ordinary memory. Revenue from standard DDR memory rose about 500% and from low-power LPDDR nearly 400%. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue almost doubled, but its share of DRAM revenue fell because ordinary DRAM grew faster.

Market shares by revenue were Samsung 38%, SK hynix 29%, Micron 21%, and CXMT 9%.

What happens next

Counterpoint’s research director MS Hwang expects prices to stay strong next year. His reasons: long-term supply agreements are holding prices up, and major new factories will not start production until 2028. Counterpoint’s November price tracker says memory prices are still rising in every segment in Q4, but more slowly than in Q3. It signals another increase in Q1 2027.

How it reaches your phone

On July 29, Qualcomm said it would raise prices on most of its chips shipped after Sept. 1. It cited higher costs across chip making, assembly, testing, packaging, and memory. CEO Cristiano Amon told CNBC, “Cost went up, prices are going to go up.” Qualcomm did not give the size of the increase. Press reports said it would be in the double digits.

Amon also said buyers of premium phones are shifting toward the lower end of the premium range, or toward last year’s model, because of memory prices. Qualcomm’s chief financial officer said some phone makers are already choosing older Snapdragon chips.

What to keep in mind

Phone makers can absorb costs, cut features, or raise prices, so the effect on any one device will differ. Our reading, not Counterpoint’s forecast: a boom driven by price rather than volume can reverse quickly if buyers pull back. Counterpoint’s own outlook is for firm prices through next year.

Sources